think-tank

This week, On Think Tanks named the South African Institute of International Affairs one of its 55 Think Tanks to Watch for 2026, recognising its innovative work in research, policy, and public debate. Good. Applaud it. But ask the harder question that every African should be asking: who is watching the watchers? And who is paying them?
Because in Africa, knowledge is never neutral. It is commissioned, funded, and too often quietly steered. The same continent where a foreign capital can finance a seminar on "regional stability" while its client army marches across a neighbour's border is the continent where an independent analyst has to fight twice: once against the lie, and once against the lack of money to publish the truth.
Consider the war in eastern Congo. Since 2021, the Rwanda Defence Force has been fighting inside the Democratic Republic of Congo under the cover of M23, a force that Kigali insists is a homegrown rebellion. It is not. UN Group of Experts reports, including S/2025/446 and S/2026/466, have documented the presence of Rwandan troops, command structures, and weapons flows that a rebellion of local grievance could not produce on its own. Independent researchers using satellite imagery have tracked new graves at the Kanombe military cemetery in Kigali, more than 1,171 added since 2021 by the most conservative count. A government does not hide its dead unless it is hiding a war.
Let us be precise about the scale. The RDF has deployed an estimated 14,000 to 18,000 soldiers into Congolese territory, equipped with heavy weapons, drone support, and artillery. That is somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of Rwanda's entire army, sent to kill, occupy, and loot a sovereign neighbour. M23 has been used as the mass manpower and the political alibi, the same playbook Moscow ran in Donetsk and Luhansk before the full invasion of Ukraine. If the world recognised that template when Russia used it, there is no honest reason to pretend it cannot see it in Kigali.
M23's growth tells the rest of the story. The force swelled from roughly 3,000 fighters to more than 30,000, not because thousands of Congolese woke up wanting to fight, but because they were press-ganged. Civilians were seized from their villages. Prisoners were handed rifles. Boys who should have been in classrooms were marched to the front. That is forced conscription. Call it what it is: slavery in military uniform. More than seven million Congolese have been displaced by the wider conflict, and mothers in North Kivu are still burying children who never had a say in any of this.
And while the bodies pile up, Kigali sells itself to the world as a paradise of clean streets, gorilla trekking, and gleaming conference halls. It hosts global events and markets its tourism as a model of order. Sportswashing at this scale is obscene. A government can polish its image in Geneva and London, but a polished image does not bring back a dead farmer in Masisi or a girl abducted in Rutshuru. Every time a glossy brochure is printed, the hypocrisy should be named.
Here is the uncomfortable context. Much of the independent analysis that exposed this war came from researchers working on tight budgets, often reliant on international donor grants. That dependence is not a moral failure, but it is a vulnerability. Funders have agendas. Governments have interests. When a donor's strategic partner is the aggressor, the pressure to soften the findings is real, even if it is rarely spoken aloud. The continent's think tanks are being asked, implicitly, to be useful to someone. Our demand should be simple: they must be useful to Africans.
Across the continent, the scramble is back. China builds the railways and holds the debt. Russia sells arms and deploys mercenaries to guard gold and regimes. Turkey sells drones and opens bases. The UAE buys ports and farmland. Qatar and Saudi Arabia fund schools, mosques, and media. Different flags, same extractive logic. Every one of these actors prefers an African government that does not ask questions, and every one of them is happy to finance the institutions that keep the questions quiet. Independent research is the immune system of a sovereign nation, and an immune system that is paid for by the disease is no immune system at all.
So what must change? First, African governments must stop treating research as an afterthought. Domestic funding for think tanks, universities, and statistical offices should be written into national budgets and protected by law, not left to the mercy of whichever embassy offers the next grant. Second, every donor-funded research institute should publish its funding sources in full, and parliaments should have the power to summon them. Transparency is not an insult. It is the price of credibility.
The success stories prove that a better path exists. Botswana built one of Africa's most durable democracies on fiscal discipline, strong property rights, and a press that could embarrass its own leaders. Mauritius turned a sugar island into a financial and services hub by protecting contracts and investing in human capital. Senegal, after its 2024 transition, showed that citizens who demand accountability can force a peaceful change of government. Ghana's Center for Democratic Development and Kenya's Institute of Economic Affairs have long shown that African analysts can hold their own governments to account when they are given the space to do so. Rwanda's economic record is real, but its economic success cannot be used as a licence to invade. Growth does not cancel out a war crime.
Regional bodies have a duty too. The African Union must stop hiding behind diplomatic language and name the invader. The UN Security Council must enforce its own findings, including the sanctions and accountability measures its experts keep recommending. And the private sector, which depends on stable markets, should stop funding investment in a conflict economy built on Congolese minerals extracted under the barrel of a gun.
Now the question is for you. Are you willing to accept a continent where the truth about our wars is written in Washington, Paris, Beijing, or Abu Dhabi, and then sold back to us? Or will you demand that African evidence be produced, funded, and defended by African hands?
Write to your MP, your senator, your parliament. Ask who funds the think tank that briefs your government. Demand that the AU name Rwanda's invasion for what it is. Demand that the UN Security Council act on the Group of Experts reports instead of filing them away. Support the independent researchers in your own country, and hold them to the highest standard, because they will only earn their place by being unafraid.
We do not need think tanks that are merely watched. We need think tanks that cannot be bought, and citizens who will not look away.
Based on reporting by SAIIA