Fact-Check
Claims from regimes, militias, and media — tested against UN reports, ACLED data, satellite imagery, and open-source intelligence.
Claims from regimes, militias, and media — tested against UN reports, ACLED data, satellite imagery, and open-source intelligence.
— Rwandan government
The UN documented Rwanda deploying its own battalions as M23's operational core. M23 expanded from 3,000 to 30,000+ through forced conscription of Congolese civilians.
Sources: UN GoE Report S/2026/466, S/2025/446
— Captain Ibrahim Traore's junta
External assessments suggest the military controls 30% or less of the country. JNIM still carries out over 80% of attacks. 846 people were killed in 2025.
Sources: Global Terrorism Index 2026, IEP
— Sahel military juntas
Russian troops have been even less effective than France at curbing jihadist violence. In 2024, 2,430 civilian deaths in the Sahel were attributed to national security forces and their Russian partners.
Sources: Global Terrorism Index 2026, ACLED
— Rwandan government
An estimated 18,000 RDF troops are deployed in eastern DRC. 1,171 mass graves documented at Kanombe military barracks alone.
Sources: UN GoE reports, satellite imagery analysis
The DRC rose to #8 globally on the terrorism index, its worst ever ranking. Deaths rose 28% to 467 in 2025, driven by IS-affiliated ADF exploiting M23's diversion of military resources.
Sources: Global Terrorism Index 2026, IEP
— Sahel junta supporters
Since the coups, jihadist groups doubled their territory. ISSP doubled its area of operations in Niger. JNIM attacked Bamako itself in 2024, killing 70+ and destroying the presidential plane.
Sources: Global Terrorism Index 2026, Jessica Moody/IEP