Africa’s Unprecedented Urbanization is Shifting the Security Landscape

As Africa urbanizes at a record pace, national security policies will need to adjust to the changing geographic locus and types of threats in urban versus rural settings.

Africa’s pace of urban expansion is unprecedented in human history—and portends fundamental shifts in approaches to security.

Aerial view of the Yopougon district beside a highway running to Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. (Photo: AFP/Alexis Huguet)

Africa’s Population and Urbanization Outlook

Sources:Worldometers.info, United Nations, Africapolis/OECD, AfDB projections.

Africa’s growing urbanization coupled with its persisting, unresolved conflicts suggest that Africa’s wars will take on an increasingly urban quality.

The growing proliferation of drones in Sudan’s conflict has made urban areas increasingly susceptible to attack.

Many urban areas face additional forms of violent crime such as assaults, robberies, murders, and sexual offenses, requiring a different set of policy responses.

The rapid urbanization of many African countries will require a reassessment of strategies to provide citizen security. While armed forces are still vital for border security and addressing the threat of organized armed groups in rural areas, policymakers must increasingly consider how the threat from organized armed groups impacts urban populations.

The rapid urbanization of many African countries will require a reassessment of strategies to provide citizen security… At the least, this will require enhanced training for police forces.

The growing population density of Africa’s urban areas and the sprawling of peri-urban and informal settlements—both often not under municipal authority—are also reshaping the nature of security threats on the continent. At the least, this will require enhanced training for police forces, which comprise 48 percent of uniformed security force personnel across Africa. Decisions on force size, capabilities, deployments, roles, and authorities within population centers will also need to be reconsidered.

Africa’s swelling populations have spurred various noteworthy initiatives in city governance, planning, and security strategy.

Demonstrators speak with police officers during a demonstration in Lilongwe, Malawi. (Photo: AFP/Amos Gumulira)

A key to managing the security challenges of Africa’s urban demographic shift will be to avoid treating entire neighborhoods or populations as security threats. Historically, such approaches—marked by cordoning off areas of the city, forced evictions, and police crackdowns—have only deepened mistrust and made security sector heavy-handedness one of themost damaging forms of insecurityin fast growing cities like Lagos or Kinshasa. Instead, local authorities must work to understand these communities,recognize their role in urban resilience and vitality, and integrate them more fully into the city’s economic and social systems.

More on:Africa Security TrendsSudanNigeriaDemocratic Republic of the CongoThe Sahel

Based on reporting by ACSS