Cairo Reopens Its Tripoli Embassy Without Ending Its Bet on Haftar

Twelve years. That is how long Egypt kept its embassy in Tripoli shut. Twelve years of Libyan families living with militias, checkpoints, and empty promises while their diplomats worked from somewhere else. This month, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty cut the ribbon on that building and the cameras rolled. Diplomats called it historic. Analysts called it a shift. Ask the mother in Tripoli who buried a son in the fighting whether a flag going up over a building changes anything, and you will hear the answer.

We are told this is a turning point. Maybe it is. But we have seen Libya's "turning points" before, and the bill has always been paid by Libyans, not by the foreign capitals drawing lines on maps.

Consider what the reopening actually represents. For years, Egypt backed Khalifa Haftar and his self-styled Libyan National Army in the east, while the internationally recognised government in Tripoli was the very authority Haftar was trying to overthrow. Cairo's ministers did not visit the capital for five years. Now the foreign minister is sitting in Tripoli, discussing Libya's maritime deals and reconstruction contracts. Analysts describe Egypt as "readjusting." What it is really doing is recalculating which horse to bet on, and it is recalculating because the Haftar bet stopped looking safe.

The facts show the scale of what is still happening. In July 2026, Ankara and the LNA reached unprecedented coordination, agreeing to develop military facilities, advanced surveillance systems, and training programmes in Turkey for eastern Libyan officers. Think about that. A NATO member is training the officers of a faction that has spent years trying to seize a capital by force. Haftar's son, Saddam, now deputy commander of eastern forces, has toured Turkey and Qatar, both of which back the Tripoli government. Everyone is hedging. Everyone is hedging with Libyan blood.

Then there is Sudan. Egypt's anxiety about the Rapid Support Forces is real, and it should be. The RSF has been accused of mass atrocities across Darfur and Khartoum, and UN experts have documented supply lines running through eastern Libya that reached the RSF's hands. The machinery of war does not respect borders. When a warlord sells guns in Benghazi, the weapons end up killing children in El Fasher. Haftar has been a broker of violence across the Sahel and Sudan, and every government that embraced him, including Egypt, the UAE, and Russia, owns a share of that record.

Speaking of Russia: its mercenary networks, once linked to Wagner and now reorganised under the Africa Corps banner, have operated in eastern Libya for years, guarding fuel and airfields for a man who promised Libyans order. Turkey's drones, Russian contractors, Emirati airstrikes, and Egyptian weapons have all been poured into Libya's wounds. Each power claims it is protecting stability. None of them is protecting Libyan voters.

Now look at the so-called "4+4 agreement," the roadmap that sets out possible presidential and legislative elections over the next two years. It is a serious document on paper. But Libya has seen roadmaps before. Elections were promised in 2018 and again in 2021, and they never came. Why? Because the men who control the guns and the central bank and the oil fields did not want to be voted out. Elections are the one thing a warlord fears, and that is precisely why we must demand them.

Elias al-Barouni, the Nalut University political scientist, put it better than any diplomat in Tripoli. Libya's problem is not the name of the prime minister. It is a fight over who holds power, who controls institutions and resources, what becomes of the military, and whether Libyans will ever be allowed to vote. He warned that Libya needs a settlement that ends the division, not one that merely redistributes it. That warning deserves to be tattooed on the forehead of every foreign minister who visits Tripoli.

Libya is not a failed people. It is a rich nation whose institutions have been looted for more than a decade. Its oil wealth is among the largest on the continent, yet ordinary Libyans have endured power cuts, cash shortages, and a divided central bank. The problem is not a lack of resources. It is a lack of rules. Where there is no rule of law, every militia becomes a tax collector and every foreign sponsor becomes a landlord.

So what must happen? First, foreign powers must stop arming and training factions. Turkey must end its military cooperation with the LNA and its drone deliveries to any side. Russia must withdraw its mercenaries. The UAE, Egypt, and Qatar must stop funding rival armies. The UN arms embargo must be enforced with satellite monitoring, port inspections, and public names attached to every violation. Second, the African Union must stop being a bystander. It should put a credible mediator on the file with a single mandate: a date for national elections, a unified budget, and an independent Central Bank of Libya that answers to no militia.

Third, Libya needs the boring tools that have built stable African states. Botswana built its prosperity on transparent diamond governance and an independent institution culture. Mauritius built a functioning economy on property rights, a competent civil service, and courts that rule against the powerful. Senegal showed in 2024 that a peaceful transfer of power is possible when citizens refuse to let leaders cling to office. Libya can learn from them. Audit the National Oil Corporation publicly. Publish every contract. Create a single army answerable to an elected civilian government, not to a family. Open the courts to cases against militia commanders, whoever they are.

Fourth, civil society must be protected. Libyan journalists, lawyers, women's groups, and local councils have been the only voices consistently calling for a unified state. Their safety must be guaranteed, and they must have a seat at every negotiating table, not just in the photographs taken afterward.

And now to you. If you are reading this in Lagos, Nairobi, Accra, Kinshasa, or Johannesburg, you may feel this is far away. It is not. Every time a foreign power sells arms to a warlord, the money comes from somewhere, and the weapons end up in someone's home. Every time the AU looks away, it teaches the next strongman that the continent will tolerate him. Libyans have been asking for an elected government since 2011. They have waited long enough.

Here is what you can demand. Demand that your government support a binding election date in Libya and vote for it at the AU and UN. Demand that your parliament ask for transparency on any arms or training contracts with factions in Libya. Demand that your own media stop repeating the language of "rival administrations" and call what is happening what it is: a war for control of a state that belongs to its people. Cairo can open all the embassies it likes. The test is simple. Will Libyans get to vote for the leader they want, in a country where no militia can cancel the result? Until the answer is yes, the flag over that embassy means nothing.

Based on reporting by ALJAZEERA